Summary - 7203:トヨタ自動車
リスクフリーレート
%
有利子負債②
WACCの計算
長期FCF成長率
%
自己株式数
リスクプレミアム
%
有利子負債コスト③
%
②/(②+⑤)・・⑥
46.47%
⑤/(②+⑤)・・⑦
53.53%
現金同等物
理論株価
3998
ベータ
%
税率④
%
③*(1-④)・・⑧
1.36%
①
10%
その他非事業用資産
株価
株主資本(株式)コスト①
6.74%
時価総額⑤
⑥*⑧・・⑨
0.63%
⑦*①・・⑩
5.35%
少数株主持分
乖離率
-2.01%
株主資本コスト(自分)①
%
WACC=⑨+⑩
5.99%
発行済株式数
Valuation Detail
2004.03.31
2005.03.31
2006.03.31
2007.03.31
2008.03.31
2009.03.31
2010.03.31
2011.03.31
2012.03.31
2013.03.31
2014.03.31
2015.03.31
2016.03.31
2017.03.31
2018.03.31
売上高合計
17,294,760
18,551,526
21,036,909
23,948,091
26,289,240
23,660,316
23,660,316
24,843,332
26,085,499
26,868,064
27,136,745
27,408,112
27,682,193
27,959,015
28,238,605
成長率
-
7.27%
13.40%
13.84%
9.78%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
売上原価合計
13,870,514
14,870,126
16,944,944
19,228,393
21,520,353
19,164,856
19,164,856
20,123,099
21,129,254
21,763,132
21,980,763
22,200,571
22,422,576
22,646,802
22,873,270
売上高比
80.20%
80.16%
80.55%
80.29%
81.86%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
成長率
-
7.21%
13.95%
13.48%
11.92%
-10.95%
0
5%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
売上総利益
3,424,246
3,681,400
4,091,965
4,719,698
4,768,887
4,495,460
4,495,460
4,720,233
4,956,245
5,104,932
5,155,982
5,207,541
5,259,617
5,312,213
5,365,335
売上高比
19.80%
19.84%
19.45%
19.71%
18.14%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
19%
成長率
-
7.51%
11.15%
15.34%
1.04%
-5.73%
0
5%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
販管費
1,757,356
2,009,213
2,213,623
2,481,015
2,498,512
2,458,536
2,494,215
2,564,337
2,636,873
2,697,048
2,743,329
2,790,458
2,838,453
2,887,330
2,937,105
売上高比
10.16%
10.83%
10.52%
10.36%
9.50%
10.39%
10.54%
10.32%
10.11%
10.04%
10.11%
10.18%
10.25%
10.33%
10.4%
成長率
-
14.33%
10.17%
12.08%
0.71%
-1.6%
1.45%
2.81%
2.83%
2.28%
1.72%
1.72%
1.72%
1.72%
1.72%
変動比率
-
-
-
-
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
変動費
-
-
-
-
749,554
674,599
674,599
708,329
743,745
766,057
773,718
781,455
789,270
797,163
805,135
固定費
-
-
-
-
1,748,958
1,783,937
1,819,616
1,856,008
1,893,128
1,930,991
1,969,611
2,009,003
2,049,183
2,090,167
2,131,970
固定費成長率
-
-
-
-
-
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
営業利益
1,666,890
1,672,187
1,878,342
2,238,683
2,270,375
2,036,924
2,001,245
2,155,896
2,319,372
2,407,884
2,412,653
2,417,083
2,421,164
2,424,883
2,428,230
売上高比
9.64%
9.01%
8.93%
9.35%
8.64%
8.61%
8.46%
8.68%
8.89%
8.96%
8.89%
8.82%
8.75%
8.67%
8.6%
成長率
-
0.32%
12.33%
19.18%
1.42%
-10.28%
-1.75%
7.73%
7.58%
3.82%
0.2%
0.18%
0.17%
0.15%
0.14%
法人税合計
681,304
657,910
795,153
898,312
911,495
829,028
814,507
877,450
943,984
980,009
981,950
983,753
985,414
986,927
988,290
税率
40.87
39.34
42.33
40.13
40.15
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
40.7%
NOPLAT
985,586
1,014,277
1,083,189
1,340,371
1,358,880
1,207,896
1,186,738
1,278,446
1,375,388
1,427,875
1,430,703
1,433,330
1,435,750
1,437,956
1,439,940
売上高比
5.70%
5.47%
5.15%
5.60%
5.17%
5.11%
5.02%
5.15%
5.27%
5.31%
5.27%
5.23%
5.19%
5.14%
5.1%
成長率
-
2.91%
6.79%
23.74%
1.38%
-11.11%
-1.75%
7.73%
7.58%
3.82%
0.2%
0.18%
0.17%
0.15%
0.14%
減価償却費合計
969,904
997,713
1,211,178
1,382,594
1,491,135
1,334,772
1,361,768
1,383,820
1,401,638
1,415,833
1,426,928
1,435,371
1,441,547
1,445,784
1,448,365
売上高比
5.61
5.38
5.76
5.77
5.67
5.64%
5.76%
5.57%
5.37%
5.27%
5.26%
5.24%
5.21%
5.17%
5.13%
成長率
-
2.87
21.40
14.15
7.85
-10.49%
2.02%
1.62%
1.29%
1.01%
0.78%
0.59%
0.43%
0.29%
0.18%
平均償却年数
-
7.25
7.88
7.12
6.27
(有形・無形固定資産)
5,354,647
5,795,594
7,066,628
7,764,039
7,812,002
8,008,633
8,170,611
8,302,918
8,409,826
8,494,996
8,561,566
8,612,226
8,649,280
8,674,704
8,690,191
グロスCF
1,955,490
2,011,990
2,294,367
2,722,965
2,850,015
2,542,668
2,548,506
2,662,266
2,777,026
2,843,708
2,857,631
2,868,701
2,877,297
2,883,740
2,888,305
売上高比
11.31%
10.85%
10.91%
11.37%
10.84%
10.75%
10.77%
10.72%
10.65%
10.58%
10.53%
10.47%
10.39%
10.31%
10.23%
成長率
-
2.89%
14.03%
18.68%
4.67%
-10.78%
0.23%
4.46%
4.31%
2.4%
0.49%
0.39%
0.3%
0.22%
0.16%
運転資金増減分(-で表示)
-
-703,791
-799,572
-781,774
-267,354
647,785
0
-291,503
-306,078
-192,829
-66,205
-66,867
-67,535
-68,211
-68,893
運転資金
3,925,360
4,629,151
5,428,723
6,210,497
6,477,851
5,830,066
5,830,066
6,121,569
6,427,647
6,620,476
6,686,681
6,753,548
6,821,083
6,889,294
6,958,187
設備投資(-で表示)
-
-1,438,660
-2,482,212
-2,080,005
-1,539,098
-1,531,403
-1,523,746
-1,516,127
-1,508,546
-1,501,003
-1,493,498
-1,486,031
-1,478,601
-1,471,208
-1,463,852
売上高比
-
-7.75%
-11.80%
-8.69%
-5.85%
-6.47%
-6.44%
-6.1%
-5.78%
-5.59%
-5.5%
-5.42%
-5.34%
-5.26%
-5.18%
成長率
-
-
72.54%
-16.20%
-26.01%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
フリーCF
-
1,277,121
611,727
1,424,734
1,578,271
1,659,050
1,024,760
854,636
962,402
1,149,876
1,297,928
1,315,803
1,331,161
1,344,321
1,355,560
売上高比
-
6.88%
2.91%
5.95%
6.00%
7.01%
4.33%
3.44%
3.69%
4.28%
4.78%
4.8%
4.81%
4.81%
4.8%
成長率
-
-
-52.10%
132.90%
10.78%
5.12%
-38.23%
-16.6%
12.61%
19.48%
12.88%
1.38%
1.17%
0.99%
0.84%
現在価値
-
-
-
-
-
1,565,330
912,253
717,828
762,680
859,772
915,650
875,823
835,993
796,566
16,105,669
Description
WACCについて
自分割引率は10%で。
売上高について
今年はマイナス成長、来年は今年の水準くらいかな。その後ちょっとづつ成長。
販管費について
ここは適当に。
設備投資について
減価償却費と設備投資が同じ水準に収束するように。
格付け
バイ
ホールド
セル
備考
ざっくりと計算。なんか株価に合わせにいったみたいに見えるけど・・・。